T.Y. Hilton has been a pleasant surprise. He was a third round draft pick with very good college production and, outside of good speed for his diminutive size, a lacking physical profile. Overall, Hilton had one of the better projection scores in the 2012 receiver class. After 11 PPG as a rookie, Hilton improved to 14 PPG (PPR scoring) in 2013 as Dwayne Allen was lost for the year before Week one, Reggie Wayne was injured in the middle of the year, and the rest of the Colts receivers were inconsistent at best. Hilton thrived on a great, not good, situation with Andrew Luck and little competition for targets as a sophomore.
Fast forward to this offseason and Reggie Wayne is on the mend. Da’Rick Rogers will have a full offseason to refine his craft. Dwayne Allen is projected to be ready. Now, Hakeem Nicks was signed to a one-year deal. That’s a big difference from the free run of the passing game Hilton had in 2013. Hilton was comfortably a top-50 pick according to Ryan McDowell’s ADP from March (@RyanMc23 on twitter for a good dynasty follow), but I bet he sags into the 50s or 60s (or at least should) with the changing situation.
In the only league I owned Hilton, a rebuild team I took on a month ago, I have been offering him up semi-daily for rookie pick value. It is a 10-team league, start 2-QB, PPR format. My roster is relatively bare, but I have stocked up with 7-of-10 first round rookie picks in the process and have Michael Floyd and a couple other players to build upon. Enough about the roster and back to Hilton….
Doug and I discussed (and disagreed at various points) about Hilton’s market value in existing leagues. Doug was right in that there were definitely points where obtaining two first round selections was possible. Maybe that was even the case prior to the Nicks signing. I had trouble getting a sole first (any future year) with a little sweetener in this league. That’s a long-winded intro to a trade, here it is:
Gave: T.Y. Hilton, rookie pick 16
Received: rookie pick 6, 2015 third rounder
Takeaway: This deal was prior to the Nicks signing (thank goodness) as I am sure it makes Hilton a tougher sell. Instead of looking for high rookie picks outright, which was the play in-season, Hilton becomes a #PackageUp player to position an owner in a rookie draft. Use Hilton as a high-leverage option to get from the late first into the top-4 range or, better yet, go from the mid-to-late second into the first round.
