Odell Beckham Jr. has been steadily rising since January, at least in my eyes. The LSU product was once neck-and-neck with teammate Jarvis Landry. Since then, Beckham has had a jetpack on his back and Jarvis Landry, well, is running 40 times like he is auditioning for a fullback role in the NFL. Okay, that was mean to James Wilder, but the point remains. Here is a great breakdown of some of Odell Beckham Jr’s skillset by Matt Waldman.
Digging Into the Projection Model
Odell Beckham Jr. fits the mold of a complete wide receiver prospect in my model. His size score of 77 is very good, especially for a 5’11” receiver. Beckham is thick with long arms and large hands. He also has an athleticism score over 80, better than Davante Adams, Jordan Matthews of the receivers that could be in the late first round or early second round mix along with Beckham.
In terms of age-weighted production, Odell Beckham Jr. blends in with most of the top receivers in this year’s class with a score in the 60-70 range. That is similar to guys like Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, and Davante Adams.
Odell Beckham Jr. Comparable Prospects
Going just my Beckham’s physical traits, results in the following list:
Victor Cruz
Andre Roberts
Lee Evans
Windrell Hayes
Marty Booker
That is a pretty good overal list. No dominant players, but Cruz did have a burst as a breakout player, Roberts emerged with 12 PPG in his third season, and Evans-Booker both had 16 PPG in their third seasons. Odell Beckham Jr. is significantly younger than all of these comparable prospects (a great sign) and the notable bust of the group, Windrell Hayes, had about half the production score of Beckham, a notable bust-factor metric. On the other hand, Victor Cruz, Andre Roberts, and Marty Booker all had overt dominant college seasons, something Odell Beckham Jr. did not accomplish.
This strong set of comparable prospects, in addition to his high overall projection score, places Beckham firmly in the top-5 conversation for rookie wide receiver rankings. I project Beckham’s upside as a high WR2 in his fantasy future and, like Victor Cruz, could sneak into the WR1 conversation at his absolute peak, with a perfect situation. With the possibility of a running back in the mix within that overall range, Beckham will be in the 1.03-1.08 range post-NFL draft.
