Trent Richardson has been a rollercoaster ride and he has been in the NFL for less than 24 months. Of course dynasty owners, especially ones in developmental leagues, have been salivating over him since his early college days at a minimum. He was the annointed ‘best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson in 2012 (no pressure there) and was drafted in the lofty air where running backs do not go in the NFL draft anymore.
While his efficiency lagged as a rookie, Trent Richardson averaged 16 PPG in PPR scoring and had the rare upside of double-digit touchdowns and 50 or more receptions – that all-around threat stuck on a poor Cleveland team. Many had Richardson in the top-5 of the running back rankings and for good reason, he was a young horse in a landscape of older backs on the decline.
The 2013 season turned into a house of horrors for Trent Richardson. His production lagged, then his dynasty value surged with a surprising trade to Indianapolis. Things did not improve despite the perceived better situation. Donald Brown flashed more often than Richardson – you remember Brown, right? The former first round pick that has been a dynasty afterthought for years now? Yep, that one.
Now the buzz is starting again. ‘Just wait for a full off-season’ the backers pin their hopes on. Here is a reality check:
Going back to all drafted running backs since 1999, then filtering for rookies that averaged 12-20 PPG, there have been 25 players to fit that criteria, including Trent Richardson, who fits right in the middle of that PPG spectrum. Looking for the biggest declines in PPG in their second seasons, here is the list:
- Jamal Lewis (missed entire season with injury)
- Olandis Gary (-8 PPG)
- Trent Richardson (-7 PPG)
- Doug Martin (-7 PPG)
- Julius Jones (-5 PPG)
Basically, this situation does not happen that often. Running backs that come out of the gates hot typically have a decent run as productive fantasy options following a strong rookie year. Outside of Jamal Lewis, Richardson is the ONLY one to average less than 10 PPG in year two.
I had been in discussions off and on for a few days in one of the few leagues I own Trent Richardson about trading him. First off, as one would assume, the trading market is soft for Richardson. Prior to this season, owners either used the 1.01 rookie pick on him or used a high startup pick (outside of trades). Less than two years later, many owners struggle with selling at a significant loss from that price point.
The deal ended up as this in a 12-team, PPR, start 2-RB format:
Gave: Trent Richardson
Received: 1.10 rookie pick
Takeaway: I have been trumpeting this rookie class (primarily the wide receivers) as the best class in YEARS. The top-8 or so all rival the typical top-3/4 in most seasons. That late first round pick in rookie drafts will be the equivalent to the top-5 in most years. Because of that, the 1.10 pick is a great exit point for those not holding their breath on a Richardson bounceback. I have plenty of patience to ‘go down with the ship’ on previous ‘falling knife’ type players. Trent Richardson’s value is high enough that exiting now is not throwing him away. A slow start in 2014 will be a completely different story. Owners would be lucky to get a late second for him or use him in a very cheap #PackageUp deal at that juncture.
