Marion Grice is a running back prospect this year with more name value than projection model pop. The Arizona State product is on the thin side, without top speed, but produced well above what his physical profile would suggest throughout his college career. Here is the need-to-know information from Chad Parsons’ projection model for Marion Grice:
Marion Grice: The Athlete
As mentioned in the introduction, Marion Grice is not that great of an athlete. In fact, he grades out with an overall athleticism score of 18 (1-100) compared to the over 500 running backs also in the model dating back to 1999. Looking at Grice’s physical attributes, here are his comparable prospects:
Evan Royster
Pat Paschall
Keith Toston
Noah Herron
Olandis Gary
Evan Royster flashes somewhat in his rookie season, but has faded away into the distance in two seasons since. Paschall, Toston, and Herron combined for one NFL start. Olandis Gary was one of the random Mike Shanahan products during that stretch of Denver running game dominance where any back with a pulse was a fantasy starter. It is worth noting that Marion Grice has much better age-weighted college production than any of the above names.
Marion Grice: Production
The best part of Marion Grice’s projection model is his production. This rushing score is a 55, right about average, but the receiving game is where Grice excels. Grice ranks third among major conference backs in the 2014 class in receiving score (93) behind only Charles Sims and De’Anthony Thomas. Matt Waldman had an excellent breakdown of Marion Grice in the passing as well. Here are the historical comparable prospects to Marion Grice from a production standpoint:
Trent Richardson
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Bush
Maurice Jones-Drew
J.R. Redmond
Charles Sims
Receiving production in college is a big deal for running backs. It shows they have at least passable hands and pass-blocking skills that translate to early and consistent opportunities in the NFL. Physically, Grice has little in common with the above list. That leads to Grice falling into the category of overachievers in the college where his production far surpassed his physical attributes.
Putting it All Together
With a massive difference between the first two comparable player lists for Marion Grice, this overall view is crucial. Grice was overly productive in college compared to his ultimate measureable athleticism this offseason. Here are the final comparable prospects since 1999 for the Arizona State running back:
Joseph Randle
Ciatrick Fason
Mewelde Moore
A good fit in thinking about Marion Grice is a poor man’s version of Joseph Randle. While Randle had a little buzz at times during his rookie season, most of that was as the de facto backup behind loft-injured DeMarco Murray instead of being all that talented on his own. Consider Grice as a notch or two down from even that level. Grice and Mewelde Moore are very close across the board and Moore managed to stick around the NFL for nine seasons and had situational PPR value at times.
Marion Grice does not even qualify as a decent late-round flyer in rookie drafts. If he lands in a quasi-appealing situation in the NFL draft, his acquisition cost will rise above what his talent warrants. Buyer Beware.
