This will likely be the only submission I make regarding Jared Abbrederis from now through the NFL draft. That is because I feel the projection of Abbrederis to the NFL level and for dynasty owners is clear and simple. Without further ado, here is the projection model take on Mr.Jared Abbrederis:
Jared Abbrederis is Average
Not just in one metric, but all of them, across the board. Fantasy football is about the best of the best. Run of the mill players get replaced or are constantly looking over their shoulder on NFL depth charts. Fantasy football casts aside the average NFL players because we do not need to roster solid football players – there are plenty of those on the waiver wire in most leagues.
Back to Jared Abbrederis, I bet he turns out to be a decent NFL player. He sticks on a roster for a while and if on the right depth chart, he may even have a season or two of starting-level snaps in his prime. Not offense, but many guys that make NFL rosters can achieve that in ideal circumstances. That does not interest me. Here are the big takeaways for Jared Abbrederis from my projection model:
First and foremost, Jared Abbrederis is old. He will be 23.7 years old when the season begins. He might as well be Brandon Weeden. Okay, that is extreme, but the fact remains that he is really old for prospect. I mean, Brandin Cooks is basically THREE YEARS younger than him. Guys like Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins are at least 2.5 years younger. Heck, even Kelvin Benjamin, the posterchild for saying age-matters in this year’s wide receiver crop is younger the Abbrederis. That is a big deal.
Next, Jared Abbrederis was merely average in terms of his age-weighted production despite playing against much younger competition his last couple of seasons in college. He topped out with middling marks, why would we expect him to suddenly ‘get it’ at the NFL level against the best of the best? Exactly.
Jared Abbrederis is Small
He is 6’1″, which is fine and dandy, but at less than 200 pounds, his lack of thickness is an issue. Historically, that thickness of a receiver is more important than sheer height. If given the choice, it is better to be shorter, but stacked than a rail-thin stringbean. Abbrederis’ profile would look better if he were 5’11”. Seriously.
Finally, Jared Abbrederis is not all that explosive (yucky vertical, ho-hum 40/10 times), which pegs him into a no.3 type role in an NFL offense. Does he survive at his weight in that role? I doubt it.
To put a few comparable prospect to all the numbers, Jared Abbrederis is a poor man’s version of Nate Burleson or Austin Collie if he is lucky. The rest of the names on his list are late rounders that did absolutely nothing fantasy-wise. A final name…Damian Williams. You know, the Titans receiver that has had significant snaps at various points, but has largely been replacement level. That’s the range of outcomes I see for Abbrederis.
All that adds up to a player, despite some name value, is an easy player to avoid regardless of his draft tier. If he goes late in day two in the NFL draft, be happy because some owner (not you of course) is going to reach on him, allowing a more talented player to fall into your lap.
