The buzz around Cody Latimer is steadily building. Back in January as I was filling my projection model with most of the prospects that reside there today for the 2014 class, Latimer was a name that I put into the ‘I do not know much about him, but his physical profile is intriguing’ category. With more data from his pro day, I wanted to update readers on my thoughts and his overall prospect profile since the last Cody Latimer post.
I read a blurb the other day that he is in consideration by more than one team as a late first or early second round NFL draft pick. That is surprising to me considering the overall quality of the wide receiver class. Now, if Cody Latimer is the no.9 receiver on their board and still makes the top-30 for them that makes sense. Vaulting Latimer past any of the big-name receivers does not pass my logic/projection model test. Here is why:
Cody Latimer Is High-Risk
I say that because historically receivers that have high marks in their physical profile, but lack the college age-weighed production are VERY boom-bust in terms of future fantasy impact. Sometimes players in that category figure it out – using those athletic attributes for good and not evil – to evolve into an impact player at the highest level in the world despite not doing that against non-NFL talents in college. A very high percentage of the time, they do not. They flat out bust with few NFL starts and even less fantasy viability.
Comparable Prospects
Digging into Cody Latimer’s similar receivers dating back to 1999, the group fits the exact description I referenced above: High risk. Here is the complete listing of similar receiver prospects, sorted by overall prospect score in my projection model:
Chad Jackson
Jerry Porter
Cody Latimer
Donald Jones
Greg Childs
Carlton Mitchell
Overall, the list features two top-50 picks (Jackson and Porter), but they combined for just one season of more than 5.0 PPG in PPR scoring in their first three NFL seasons. That is below average for that range of NFL draft pick. Donald Jones was actually considered the biggest success in his first three NFL seasons with 3,7,9 PPG over that span. Carlton Mitchell and Greg Childs have yet (and likely will not) start an NFL game in their respective careers.
To show the difference age-weighted production makes to a wide receiver prospect profile, here are some names with similar physical traits to Cody Latimer, but a MUCH higher production score:
Cordarrelle Patterson
Julio Jones
Torrey Smith
Demaryius Thomas
Miles Austin
Good names, right? High ceiling fantasy performers as well. All of them lap Cody Latimer in terms of age-weighted production in college. So while Latimer will have that shine of uber-upside and I would not be surprised if he lurks into the top-18 of rookie drafts by the time May rolls around, remember this list and the big difference college production makes to future NFL success. If they did not dominate a college passing game, the odds go down significantly that they will suddenly do it in the NFL and for your fantasy team.
