Ben Tate has been a ‘what if’ player for a while now, okay his entire career. Arian Foster broke out when Tate was drafted early to be the main ball carrier. At times the Foster-Tate duo was rolling on all cylinders in Houston, but now Tate is moving on.
Tate has hovered in that RB20-40 range for awhile in my rankings and his ADP has been in the 60-110 area outside of entering his second NFL season following his injury. Now becomes the moment of truth for Tate. The Browns signed him to be the starter, now what?
Unfortunately, my forecast for the former second round pick is not all that rosy. Yet another free agency garnering the ‘shop until you drop’ dynasty action plan over the next couple of weeks.
I see Tate as a two-down thumper, even moreso than Toby Gerhart. Now, what is that worth? Tate will be 26 years old when the season kicks off, the midpoint of the average productive timeline for a successful NFL running back.
A two-down back, in my book, tops out as a mid-RB2 in terms of expected ceiling. That assumes a workload of 250+ carries and a good shot at 5-10 touchdowns. And yes, Tate would need to string together a few healthy months to approach those marks.
Overall, I am skeptical that Tate fulfills those RB14-20ish expectations in 2014 or 2015. Two years from now, regardless of his production, his dynasty value will likely be swirling the drain like, well, you know.
With landing a lead job, Tate owners can shop him for a mid-first round rookie pick and, if needed, kick in a late second to get the deal done. Getting one of the top-4 receivers in this class would be a great move for teams building in the UTH style.
