This guest contribution comes from Dan Moore, UTH subscriber and superfan. Thanks to Dan for sharing his 2016 rookie draft story:
I wanted to share my story of my rookie draft that took place last week. This was my first rookie draft using the UTH strategy (and draft guide) and I feel that listening to UTH has really helped me evolve as a dynasty owner. In previous years I had flipped late 1st round picks for “sure things” such as Brandon Marshall (worked out well year one) and Marshawn Lynch (complete disaster). This year I properly understood the value of rookie picks and how to move around the board (thanks for all the war room shows they help out tremendously).
I wanted to go over how I acquired my picks because at the end of last season I barely had any.
League settings start (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, 2 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 1 Dflex) 37 roster spots, 7 IR and 6 TS spots
Trade 1
Gave Brandon Marshall, Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris, Frank Gore, Jameis Winston
Receive 1.01
Evaluation
I gave up Winston and a bunch of dynamite for Zeke. I got ripped a bit for “overpaying” but I find it hard to believe I’ll regret this a year from now.
Trade 2
Gave Julio Jones, 3.04
Received Kevin White, Jerick McKinnon, 1.03, 1.07
Evaluation
Julio is turning 28 and just had the 2nd most catches and yards in a single season EVER. That struck me as unsustainable and with his age that is most likely his best season of his career. Kevin White has the same dominate athletic profile and like Julio was a top-7 NFL pick. McKinnon is the clear backup and 3rd down option on a team with a 32-year-old starting RB whose contract is easy to get out of after this year. I think once the buzz continues to grow on McKinnon I can flip him for a 2017 1st. 1.03 & 1.07 I knew I could turn into future core assets.
Trade 3
Gave DeAngelo Williams
Received 4.06, 4.08
Evaluation
I might have been able to flip him for more in season but anytime I can get 2 picks for a backup RB who has a long injury history and is over 30 you have to take it. It also created flexibility for me to move around the draft board if needed.
The Draft
1.01- Zeke…no brainer. Clear cut #1 prospect on my board and then with his draft day boost it would be foolish to consider anyone else. I did put this pick on the block just to see if someone would give up the world but nothing of note was offered
1.03 – Doctson. He was my top WR on the board. Treadwell went #2. I like Coleman as well and was comfortable taking him at 2 if Doctson went, briefly explored moving back to 1.04 to see if I could add an extra pick but nothing made sense for me
1.07 – When on the board I had a big internal debate. The analytical side of me wanted to rush up and take Will Fuller. My eyes wanted me to take Devante Booker. Booker to me was the #2 RB in this class. I love everything about him (age doesn’t concern me too much) he can rush inside/outside, very productive catching the ball and just the SMOOTHEST runner in this class. I knew I could get him later on and a number of people in this league were bashing Fuller so I explored a trade down to add some juice and still get 1 of those 2
Trade 1
Gave 1.07, 4.08
Received 2.01, 3.09, Dwayne Allen
Evaluation
I tried to move down but stay in the top 11 (figured both might still be on the board then). That wasn’t happening. I then looked to move 1.07 for a future 1st + with me then using that capital to trade back in a few picks later to secure my guy. That wasn’t happening.
I finally settled on this deal. Not the juice I really wanted but I thought I could still get one of the two I was debating between and I currently have nothing behind Gronk at TE. Allen to me is a guy with a great QB and no other TE of note on the team (Sorry Erik Swoope) so I could see myself flipping him in-season for a 2nd and/or this lets me move Gronk without needing a TE in return. Trading up a round on the back-end of the draft for me was key as well.
2.01 – Devante Booker. I got the guy that I was leaning towards at 1.07 so that extra juice is pure profit. While I hoped he was drafted a round (or 2) higher, I did like the landing spot for 2 reasons. 1 it deflated his value a bit because of CJ Anderson (I think he’s overrated) which allowed me to pull off a move like this. 2, he reminds me so much of Arian Foster (which funny enough you also made that comp on a podcast a few days after I drafted him) and he lands with Arian Foster’s coach so I know he’ll use him properly.
Trade 2
Gave Eric Kendricks
Received 3.05, 4.10
Evaluation
Jared Goff was staring me in the face. In this same league the past 2 rookie drafts I have used 2nd round picks on Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston and was able to flip both for much more than what I paid for them. QBs drafted #1 overall have a historic hit rate of 55% since 99 (thanks draft guide!). No other player in this range (other than Wentz) has anywhere near that chance of hitting so it seemed like an obvious choice. I am stacked at LB so I could afford to move a guy that would have been a fringe start for me this year.
Trade 3
Gave 3.09
Received 2017 3rd, 2018 4th
Evaluation
I was snipped by someone taking Austin Hooper. I had little capital in 2017 draft (my pre-UTH trades) and there was a bunch of players I had in a flat tier that I thought I would scoop up in round 4.
4.06 – Josh Ferguson – I’ve watched the Colts with Luck give Dan Herron and Bradshaw high volume in the passing game. Theres basically nothing of note behind Gore in Indy and with him being 33 he won’t be a 3 down back.
4.10 Marquez North – I wanted Keyarris Garrett earlier but he was gone. North to me fell to the better landing spot with far less competition. His tape wasn’t anywhere as good as Garrett’s though
5.04 Tre Madden – Thick pass catching specialist in a good O with an unsettled depth chart. Might not make the team but if he does could earn the 3rd down role
5.06 Dwayne Washington – 3-way battle between him, Zenner and Ridley for the “between the tackles” role. I like his thickness and think he’s got a shot to win the role.
Current Roster
QB– Rivers, A. Smith, Goff
RB– Zeke, McKinnon, Booker, S.Ware, C. Thompson, J. Thompson, Khiry Robinson
WR – K. Allen, Benjamin, M. Floyd, White, Perriman, Doctson, Crabtree, Enunwa, Garcon
TE– Gronk, D. Allen, V. Davis
DL – Watt, Suh, Wake, G. McCoy
LB – L. David, Levy, Bucannon, D. Johnson, Dansby
DB– E. Reid, Sample
Overall Thoughts
I was very pleased with my draft overall. I looked at moving around the board to get my target players. I was able to trade back and get my target player with the 2.01 which gave me free money (I know you would have gone Fuller over Booker but Booker was my plant the flag guy in this draft). In the offseason I wanted to acquire more picks in 2017 and 18 and get a solid backup TE for cheap. Having a succession plan for when Rivers declines was also in the back of my mind. I checked all of those boxes without sacrificing anything of value to me. I like my late round target guys and had more confidence in them than in previous drafts. Hopefully they flash a bit so I can trade it for a higher quality asset.
Find comparable prospects on 100+ rookies for 2016 in the UTH Draft Guide.
