As we approach the preseason, it is time to round out your rosters and prepare for submitting weekly lineups. Activity in your leagues has likely increased and now is a great opportunity to send out a batch of trade offers. This installment will focus on the quarterback position.
Buy
Blake Bortles
Yes, Blake Bortles has terrible throwing mechanics. Yes, Jacksonville drafted Leonard Fournette in the first round of the NFL draft. Bortles is the prime example of the difference between fantasy football and NFL football. Bortles is just one year removed from a top-5 finish at the position. With an ADP of QB21, Bortles is almost free in start-1 leagues. I recently picked Bortles up as my last pick in a 25-round start-up draft.
Jared Goff
After watching the disaster of a season last year, Jared Goff is not someone you would typically want to buy. I am cautiously optimistic that the former #1 overall pick still has upside as Los Angeles works to create a new offense under first-year head coach Sean McVay. At QB28, he will not cost much to acquire and is a smart investment, especially in QB premium formats.
Carson Palmer
While the other two players on the buy list are better as your QB2 or QB3, Carson Palmer has the potential to put together a QB1 season this year if he can stay healthy. Last year was a disappointment for Palmer and was tied to arm fatigue as the season progressed. With the return of John Brown from injury adding to talents like David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, Palmer is in a great position to put up one more solid season. Palmer is currently being drafted as the QB29 and was not even drafted in half of the 20-round ADP mock drafts.
Sell
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is currently going as the QB1 in ADP. The 33-year-old is not showing any signs of slowing and has overall QB1 potential every year. I am not doubting his upside, or value on a week-to-week basis, but his current value is more than I want to spend on the quarterback position. In July mock drafts, Rodgers was going in the same range as players like Christian McCaffery or Davante Adams. In existing leagues, I expect that you could still get a solid quarterback plus a key contributor at the wide receiver or running back position in return for Rodgers. Ideally, I would flip Rodgers for a player like Jameis Winston plus some draft capital.
Kirk Cousins
While I understand having Aaron Rodgers as the QB1 due to his weekly upside, I do not understand how Cousins is currently going as the QB8. Cousins has been a startable option at the quarterback position and finished as the QB5 last year, but his long term outlook scares me. It is increasingly unlikely that he returns to Washington in 2018 and I am not willing to pay for that level of uncertainty. I expect that Cousins will see significant regression in 2017 as he is breaking in a new wide receiver corps. I easily would prefer players like Matthew Stafford (QB13) or Dak Prescott (QB10) who are going later than Cousins.
Hold
This group of players has significant value that I am not opposed to paying in the right situation. Ideally, these players are on your roster after purchasing when their value was lower.
Jameis Winston
With the addition of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, Winston’s value is skyrocketing in redraft leagues and he is going as the QB4 in dynasty. While I do not expect a top 5 season from him this year, I expect this will be the first of many top-12 seasons for Winston as he continues to grow. Winston is an ideal quarterback to pair with someone like Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger in a start-1 league to allow for another year of growth but I am happy to have Winston as my QB1 in premium formats.
Marcus Mariota
Even with the ‘exotic-smashmouth’ philosophy in 2016, Marriota finished as a QB1. With the addition of Corey Davis, I expect Mariota to continue his solid play. While I am not willing to pay the QB5 price for Mariota in startups, I could see paying up to solidify a deep roster.
Derek Carr
Arguably the quarterback from this group on the best team, Carr is going as the QB6 in dynasty. Carr’s 2016 season was impressive, finishing as the QB7. After adding veterans Jared Cook and Marshawn Lynch to bolster two weak positions, this offense could be even better in 2017. Still only 26, it is easy to project Carr as a QB1 for 5-10 years.
