UTH Trade Calculator

The UTH Dynasty Trade Calculator is built from Chad Parsons’ dynasty player value database. Use it as a guideline to propose, examine, and execute more winning dynasty trades. This information is for individual subscriber use only and not to be shared beyond the account holder. All rights reserved.

*UTH General Manager members will receive this Trade Calculator free for a 1-week trial upon sign-up! 

See Calculator Format Descriptions, Instructions, and Features below the tool.

Data Update: May 15, 2023

What’s Changed? 

  • Regularly scheduled update for profiles and probabilities post-NFL Draft

 

 

 

To get the latest values after an update, simply refresh the page.

 


League Formats

Choose the one best suited to your league settings

  • 10-Team 2QB
  • 10-Team 2QB 2TE
  • FFPC (TE Premium, Short Rosters)
  • FFPC Superflex (TE Premium, Short Rosters)
  • *NEW* FFPC TriFlex (Superflex, TE Premium, Short Rosters, Added Flex)
  • 12-Team Non-PPR
  • 12-Team 0.5 PPR (1QB)
  • 12-Team PPR (1QB)
  • 12-Team 2PPR TE (Stock Format with 2PPR for TE)
  • 12-Team Superflex
  • *NEW* 12-Team Superflex, 1.5 TE PPR
  • 12-Team Safeleagues Superflex 2PPR TE
  • *NEW* 12-Team SF PPC (Superflex, Point-Per-Carry)
  • 12-Team 2QB 2TE
  • *NEW* 12-Team Superflex, 2TEP (2TE plus Premium Scoring)
  • 12-Team 2QB 2TE PPC
  • 12-Team ‘The Works’ (Superflex, PPC, TE Premium)
  • 14-Team (1QB, PPR)
  • *NEW* 14-Team Superflex
  • 14-Team ‘The Works’ (Superflex, PPC, TE Premium)
  • 14-Team Superflex 2TE
  • *NEW* 14-Team Superflex 2TEP (2TE plus Premium Scoring)
  • 16-Team (1QB)
  • 16-Team Superflex
  • 16-Team ‘The Works’ (Superflex, PPC, TE Premium)
  • 16-Team Superflex, 2TE

**All formats are PPR scoring unless otherwise indicated**

Team Settings

  • Neutral
    • Use in a majority of situations, this represents true UTH valuation for players and picks
  • Contending
    • Caps the age factor, use if making a ‘win now’ move (addressing starting lineup spot for current year production) OR seeking an opinion closer to general market consensus view
  • Building
    • Minimal limit on age value factor, use for orphan projects, end of roster moves, or rebuilding situations only

Player-Asset Value

  • Each Format and Team Setting combination is normalized to represent $2400 of total league capital
  • An individual player’s value might be lower in a certain setting than another, but the relationship between Player A and Player B is the key.
  • Player values are based on a formula developed by Chad Parsons incorporating positional value, probability of production ranges, career arc, and age factors.
  • In addition to trading, this tool can be used to compare waiver wire options or startup draft selections
  • Rookie Pick Values are determined through a rigorous historical study of probability, hit rate, and expected value factors.
  • Both Current Year AND Future picks can be used in the calculator. The new custom pick values are listed as 1 Overall Rookie 2022, 2 Overall Rookie 2022, etc. and based on the exact Best Value ordering by UTH formula. The old ones (still good to use for future rookie picks) are Rookie 1, Rookie 2, etc. 
  • Rookie Picks are NOT discounted for future years, users can devalue them at their own discretion by estimating a lower rookie draft slot if desired.

How to Use

  • Put up to 5 Players or Rookie Picks (through 65 overall) into each side of the trade
  • Player Format: First <Space> Last, the tool will predict and give options as you type either one.
  • Player Value Coming up as Zero? Ensure Spelling-Punctuation. If correct, 99% chance player is a complete roster clogger.
  • Rookie Pick Format: Rookie 1, Rookie 2, etc. based on overall draft position (historical average)
  • Current Year Rookie Picks: Overall Rookie 1, 2, etc. These are custom to the current year. Use these when available in the calculator (by February, now in calculator for 2023)
  • Future Picks: Input Average Slot of Team Strength Estimate, for example: Non-Playoff team projection (say 1.01-1.08)? Rookie 4-7 range. Likely Playoff team? Rookie 9-11 range.
  • When possible use individual rookies instead of the generic rookie pick for the current year.
  • Free Roster Spots: Trades with an uneven number of assets on each side will produce a free roster spot (or multiple) to even out the trade, that roster spot value varies by format and represents the average final roster spot in that league. Better teams will have a higher roster spot value while low-ranked teams will be below the given value.
  • Use the X boxes to clear assets from an existing trade, the reset button clears the entire grid.

Rankings vs. Trade Calculator

With a few test drives, you will notice the values in the calculator do not fit the exact order of the dynasty rankings on the site. Rankings show more personal preferences within the tiers and non-data driven aspects of how the players would be ordered by the long-term value equation of the trade calculator. Where the personal preferences come into play is in trades where the difference is +/- 10%. In those deals, the difference is generally a mid-round rookie pick at best. While the rankings are split into natural tiers, the exact value moving from player to player or position to position is not present. The trade calculator creates transparency of those differences.

The ‘Best Player Premium’ Rule of Thumb

  • If one player or asset is clearly better than the rest of the deal (either by market perception or calculator value), a premium is typical (beyond even value) to balance the trade.
  • In my research anywhere from +10-30% is the going rate to even out a stud or top rookie pick (prospect) for package deal
  • As a seller of the Best Player-Asset, generally, ask for at least +30-40% in diversification deals and be careful to not sell a dollar for four quarters-type trades.
  • As a buyer of the Best Player-Asset, generally shoot for less than -15% in consolidation deals, the exception being when an overly strong team and can buy players as a luxury.
  • The more shallow the league or starting requirements, the more significant these Best Player guidelines. Deeper leagues increase the value of quality depth and soften the requirements on the ‘Best Player Premium.’
  • Format plays a role in ‘Best Player’ as well, with TE-premium, QB-premium, or other formats shifting to a certain position in many trades.

Strategy Points for Use 

  • UTH Values do not incorporate market value, ADP, or any consensus view of players into the equation.
  • Use Name Value Players to leverage deals of +30% or more (remember players with production in their previous season will generally carry more value than the same older options with low values here in the calculator), and when proposing deals, START on high side of return rate. Also, the HOT players by the market can demand a bigger premium (exploit when selling one) with the COLD players by the market perception being the opposite in how buying or selling them will be affected.
  • Players in a deal as projected starters (post-trade) for the individual dynasty team likely have more inherent value, while bench players have less.
  • Top quarterbacks are valuable to their own teams (in general) but not as much on the open market in start-1 formats. This calculator is closer to that ‘team’ value than the topsy-turvy market value based on the few teams having trade interest.

ADP Values

Now the UTH Trade Calculator has incorporated collected ADP values to compare dynasty trades and UTH values to an ADP view of the deal. GREEN on the slider means you would be receiving the better deal by ADP. RED indicates you are giving up additional value by ADP measures. This is calculated by using the positional RANK of all the players involved in the deal in a +/- system according to UTH values, so this more about the difference between each player/assets’ +/- when all added together in the deal NOT a singular ‘who is going earlier in a startup’ type valuation.

UTH Trade Calculator users can further exploit the market by now constructing ‘fair market’ or even deals slanted towards the other owner by ADP, yet still win or crush the deal by UTH values – a true game-changer in the dynasty market.

*Note that players without consistent ADP in typical depth leagues will not factor into the ADP formula or results bar, which can be incoming rookies early in the offseason as one example*

Age Values

With an upgrade already in the works and the primary focus to incorporate ADP, there was an opportunity to add another metric to the calculator. I chose an age component of the UTH player value database. This slider will show the difference in age values of a dynasty trade. There are two aspects of each asset’s age value: a proprietary ‘quality years remaining’ metric and a ‘career length’ based mark based on a player’s to-date performance or historical averages by draft and positional factors. GREEN on the slider means you gaining Age value in the trade, while RED indicates you are giving up value in the category. Use Age as yet another consideration in connection with your dynasty team’s direction and trade goals.

Dynasty Team Values

The trade calculator is built on 2,400 total value per format, similar to creating an auction draft board. As a result, creating power rankings for a league is straight-forward: Add up all the relevant player values on a team’s roster PLUS add any additional picks (or subtract lost future picks) in Y+1, etc. beyond a team’s one-per-round allotment. For example, if a team had 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th round picks the following year, they would add the value of a 1st to their roster total, while subtracting the value of a 3rd round selection as those are the differences from their collection of picks to the default.

In a 12-team league, an average roster will be a value of 200. As a league progresses further from the startup draft, team values diverge greatly from the 200 average to extreme levels based on owner skills and execution of trades and rookie drafts. For a 12-team league, here is a rough guide to team strength by trade calculator values:

<0 Value: Yes, I have seen this in one of my leagues. Minimal player value and lacked many of their own future picks to create roster ‘debt’ – a hopeless situation.

0-100 Value: Trade these older or barren rosters for their future 1sts (and picks in general)

101-150 Value: May have 1-2 core assets without depth or lacking top-end talent with a deeper pool of middling starting options

151-250 Value: Average teams in dynasty, could get lucky with playoff/title run or bottom out, tough to predict future picks

250-299 Value: Generally in ranked #3-4 in league power rankings

300-399 Value: Relatively easy for UTH-fueled startup results to begin a league in this range. Likely in #1 or #2 spot of league power rankings

400-499 Value: The realistic goal for UTH teams in Years 3+ of the league. Takes a few successful trades per year and continued acquisition of rookie picks

500+ Value: The elite dynasty teams reside here. Truly dominant rosters with a high-end lineup, elite upside youth, and easily churning older options annually for profit. These teams control their league’s trade market and rookie drafts.

600+ Value: Yet to hit 600 with any of my teams. If you get here, I would love to share your story on a premium UTH show!

Other League Sizes

Convert the above chart as needed for leagues of other team sizes. A 10-team league would have an average roster value of 240 instead of 200. A 14-team league comes out to roughly 170 for an average squad. 16-team? 150 is the middle mark.