The dynasty running back rankings have no idea what is coming. Everyone except maybe LeVeon Bell should be interviewing to keep their current standing in the ranks with Todd Gurley coming in 2015.
First and foremost, reports are positive about a clean recovery for Gurley’s knee injury that ended his 2014 season at Georgia. The biggest variable is what drills, if any, he will do during the pre-draft process. Using the eye test, plus even taking a tier or two below his recruting numbers from high school into account, athleticism will not be an issue for Gurley. Here is why Todd Gurley is easy to love:
Todd Gurley has an overall projection model score of 93. One of the top-5 highest marks for running backs dating back to 1999.
Of running backs with a projection score of 85, Gurley is the most-well rounded major conference running back producer since Ricky Williams in 1999. Williams is the gold standard in terms of age-weighted rushing AND receiving prowess at +102% and +81% above average. Todd Gurley finishes his college career at +62% rushing and +72% receiving. Even Edgerrin James did not match that well-balanced production at +38% and +70%.
Of the running backs with overall scores of at least 85 (10 of them), Gurley will be a dynasty mouth-watering 21.1 years old for Week 1 of his rookie NFL season. Only Edgerrin James (21.1) and Darren McFadden (21.0) are in the neighborhood.
Historically, first round running backs are a safe fantasy investment. Since 1999, more than 80% of them have produced fantasy starter-caliber seasons in their NFL career. That even takes into the account the rough stretch of late that has underwhelmed since 2008. Ironically, 2008 is the last time a running back even approached Todd Gurley’s elite projection model profile and score. The average first round running back has a projection model score of 72. From 2009 to 2013, the first rounders averaged 69 and there were plenty of flaws within that lot, including Chris Wells and Donald Browns’ lack of receiving production, C.J. Spiller’s lack of rushing production, and Doug Martin and David Wilson lacking in both categories.
In short, they were not the typical first rounders of the last 15 years. Todd Gurley, however, is exactly the top shelf running back prospect that can headline a youth movement for the dynasty rankings. What about Trent Richardson you may ask? His projection model profile was not without flaws. Richardson, the apparent savior in 2012, was an average rusher by age-weighed college production and with an overall score of 70, essentially and ‘average’ first round back coming out.
As I said in the beginning, LeVeon Bell is only running back potentially safe from getting bumped down by Todd Gurley before the former Georgia back even plays a down in the NFL.
