Tevin Coleman is a trendy name headed into 2015 NFL Draft season at the running back position. And why not? The Indiana product churned out a gaudy 170 rushing yards per game in 2014 and eclipsed 7.0 yards-per-carry for his college career. While Coleman is inside the top-10 for major conference running backs in the 2015 class, he is not without his pre-combine metric ‘warts’. Here is the need-to-know information about Tevin Coleman:
Tevin Coleman had an outstanding 2014 season on the ground, but his overall rushing score in the model is not even in the top-5 for major conference runners in this class at +24%. His age-weighted rushing yardage score is merely average for his career and his touchdown numbers are below average.
Another concern is his receiving game usage. Tevin Coleman has a -2% mark in the overall category, which is below all the well-known 2015 backs outside of Melvin Gordon. The model is not kind to backs that did not have a decent, if not better, pass-catching role in college.
So we have an above-average runner combined with an average receiver. Add to that the projection that Coleman will be in the average territory as an athlete in the pre-draft process and the overall takeaway is tepid. Here are Tevin Coleman’s comparable prospects prior to his official measurments:
- Devontae Booker
- Tre Mason
- Chris Rycraw
- Ryan Williams
- Jerome Harrison
- Ryan Moats
Coleman and Booker are similar within the 2015 NFL Draft at this point. Booker has a better production profile, but is nearly a year older – a key point to their projection score. All of these backs are on the lighter side of the weight scale and were hovering near average in receiving marks entering the NFL. Three of these backs (Mason, Williams, Moats) were day two picks.
The biggest takeaway I have here is that Booker is an arbitrage opportunity instead of the trendier name in Tevin Coleman. With a strong combine, Tre Mason is a best-case scenario from an athletic standpoint to finish off Coleman’s profile. If he struggles, Coleman may drop down into the James White-Branden Oliver-Eldra Buckley range as a prospect.
