There have been numerous ways that analysts have broken down Odell Beckham Jr.’s ridiculous 2014 rookie season. Here are a few tidbits on Beckham from the projection model:
Averaging even 16 PPR PPG as a rookie wide receiver puts a player in a very small group over the last 15 years. Prior to 2014, just three rookie receivers hit that threshold since 1999: A.J. Green, Marques Colston, and Anquan Boldin. All three averaged 16-18 PPR PPG in their rookie season and that was only the beginning. Boldin has churned out nine season of above-baseline production in his 12 seasons. Marques Colston? Seven such seasons out of nine. A.J. Green? Four straight seasons as a fantasy starter to kick off his career.
Mike Evans hit 16 PPR PPG this season, joining the rarified air of the long-lasting trio above. Then there is Odell Beckham Jr., who beat the threshold by 50% at 24 PPR PPG this season. He has broken all the measuring sticks of the past 15 years for a rookie receiver. Of this now quintet of high-level rookies in the projection model, Beckham has the highest projection model score as well at 82. A.J. Green is second, followed by Evans and Colston.
Add to the equation that Mike Evans and Odell Beckham are more than a year younger than any of Green-Colston-Boldin entering the NFL and it further fans the flame burning of Evans and Beckham warranting the WR1 and WR2 spots in dynasty rankings. One factor that folks overstate for fantasy purposes is raw height. Evans is 6’5″, while Beckham is less than 6’0″. Does that really matter? Historically, it does not. Being thick relative to height, having a productive college background weighted by age, and things like hand size and adjusted speed are FAR more important than a few inches of height in as of itself.
Odell Beckham Jr. is the perfect combination of production, age, and metrics over the past decade and a half. Consider him the top overall asset, period.
